Watch the Twatter

Twitter Earnings: April 28 Premarket

We truly live in a 24-hour news cycle. I’ve never seen anything like this Twitter buyout saga unfold. Late on Monday, April 11th a Stew Peters’ tale premiered Watch the Water. In my opinion, it was a ridiculous disinfo campaign about snake venom responsible for CoVid that tried to build on a Q’ism-the same as its title- a phrase which Q never even mentioned during CoVid. Nevertheless, it seemed to be all the rage with people vaguely familiar with Q, who were engrossed in it (If you’re unfamiliar, don’t worry, you didn’t miss anything). Yet in two days that story was knocked out of the cycle with Musk’s Thursday offer to buyout Twitter.

Musk’s offer came at a very interesting time-just two weeks before Twitter’s earnings report was due. This time last year, Twitter presented its earnings report where it missed estimates on user growth:

Twitter’s total number of monetizable daily users grew by 7 million from the fourth quarter to 199 million but fell shy of analysts’ expectations of 200 million. The user base was up 20% compared with a year ago. The quarter marked Twitter’s first period mostly without the presence of former President Donald Trump after he was removed from the service following the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. CNBC

Afterwards Twitter lost 17% in a couple of days. On 4/29/21-same day as the earnings report- it opened at $67.01 and by Friday afternoon it closed at 55.20, 4/30/21. Notice this was the first quarter “without the presence of President Trump"-him and about a million other users. It would go onto bobble up and down, and lose through the next earnings announcement, and eventually lose market capital from its high of $61B to $37B as of Friday 4/22. How many users were leaving Twitter, Facebook, and other social media platform for censoring its users? Just consider this statistic about Telegram:

Telegram’s app installs have dramatically increased in 2021. In the first half of 2021, the app had been downloaded a total of 214.7 million times.

According to Sensor Tower data, Telegram was the most downloaded app (combined across the App Store & Google Play) globally in January 2021, with more than 63 million downloads. Telegram User Statistics

Really, you don’t say. In January of 2021, what happened that month? Millions of us were removed from Twitter, permanently banned, along with President Trump.

There are no coincidences.

At the time of Musk’s offer, I noted that the timing was interesting considering the earnings announcement was coming up, and that he may have put them in a position against the wall. Because whatever those numbers are, the Twitter board already knows them, or would be finding out soon. It would seem the accountants must’ve called Twitter BOD with the inevitable numbers yesterday. Reports came out that Twitter had received pressure from its shareholders to sell to Musk and they called a meeting with him today. Really, according to sources familiar with the matter. What changed? They were so arrogantly adamant in the beginning. They didn’t seem too concerned about shareholders a week ago. So now four days before earnings are made public, they want to sit down with Musk to seriously consider the offer?

In my previous article, I discussed that as of 4/20/21 there wasn’t enough evidence for individual shareholders to bring a lawsuit against Twitter. However, if numbers are dismal on Thursday, and Twitter loses more market capital, not only could Musk withdraw his offer, then shareholders really WILL have a case against the board. This is why it was important for the Twitter BOD to sit down with Musk ahead of the announcement to be seen as negotiating with him.

Musk could always call it quits

In his communications with Twitter's board, Musk said $54.20 a share was his "best and final offer," which struck many Wall Street analysts as bizarre, since mergers and acquisitions typically follow a lengthy negotiation process.

If true to his word, however, Musk could withdraw his offer, and might even sell all of his shares in Twitter. In his letter to the chairman of Twitter's board, Bret Taylor, Musk hinted at that possibility, writing that if his purchase proposal is turned down, he "would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder." NPR

Other points of interest on the heels of Musk’s offer: Netflix loses 38% of its market capital last week, CNN+ is canceled due to lack of interest, and Disney also takes a huge hit in cancelations and a continual slide of its market cap. Can you imagine sitting on the Twitter board watching all of this unfold, after Congress formally tells you to preserve all buyout correspondence, and know you’ve limited your corporation’s hope for expansion? Sitting down with Musk is self-preservation for the board. Twitter BOD will now say they were diligent in protecting the corporation from a hostile takeover, and properly vetting its only offer. But is it likely this deal will be successful?

Twitter wants to know more about any active investigations by regulators into Musk, including by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), that would present a risk to the deal being completed, one of the sources said. Reuters

What would happen to Twitter stock if the earnings report is terrible AND Musk negotiations fall through? That’s right, Twitter stock falls through the floor, and then Twitter may get some other less risky entity to make them an offer, but for way less than Musk’s. Almost as if this was all planned. Its market cap low is $10.26B in April of 2016. What year? The year President Trump was elected, when Twitter’s stock and its users started making its run. The President Trump years made Twitter worth $61 Billion, and Twitter’s removal of Trump, well you know…

There are no coincidences.